WOA! - Economics, Growth, Disparity of Wealth
1. It is static, you simply create an evaluation function and then evaluate statically based on this. You need a dynamic analysis based on scenarios, and only at the end of each high probability scenario to apply your static evaluation function based on some characteristics.
Like in chess, you need to create scenarios and then evaluate the position at the end of a high probability variation. If you try to apply the evaluation function in a static way, based on the current structure of the board, it will not work out well. All these variations need to take in account factors such as wars and possible creation or breakups of states and political structures, alliances, etc and only after that you can use an evaluation function. All these effects had dramatic impact on the 20th century.
2. The relative value of these characteristics that weight your evaluation is also dynamic, it is not static.
3. The possible structural outcomes are vast , from a one world government to a very strict nation based government. You do not seem to try to predict the changes in boundaries to much.
4. You seem not to take in account scientific creativity and production at this time to much in account.
5. You take as a undisputable scientific fact the hard version of global worming, which is just a scientific hypothesis. Even if could happen this it is not clear if it will be so strong as to affect the world in this way.
6. You postulate that OIL and gas will remain main sources of energy for the world, which is not necesarilly true, it is a big assumption, considering that technological predictions have been so difficult over the time.
7. The prediction is somehow to deterministic, like in a dialectical theory, it does not use take in account the population basis, the size , not only its quantity. Also the ability to produce and work together is significant, not only potential talent, or maximum talent a national is capable of. Russia as it is now, in order to be stable depends on the talent of its leadership, which is not guaranteed to be also in the future. Also many scientists seem to leave Russia and the wealth of the country is hardly distributed by merit, so it is unlikely that a scientific base will easily develop in Russia in the midd-range future.
US Immigration - WOA! World Population Awareness
China has had the highest population since 1960
Chinese land grab with nukes… – highly unlikely, IMHO. For one thing, China is still a long way from being overpopulated, most population lives in coastal regions, they have plenty of their own sparsely populated areas inland which could be developed for agriculture and manufacturing, and government has plenty of ways to induce population to migrate internally if needed. They simply don’t need Siberia. Secondly, in the general scheme of things, China is not really a warlike country, nor is Russia. If China really needed the land (which they don’t), then more likely they would negotiate a land sale with Russia (something like Louisiana Purchase), or, more likely, the two countries would set up a joint development deal for the land, and share the profits. Great blog, though, you are bold to make these predictions. Futurology not for the chicken-hearted.
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Leadbeater's possum – also known as the fairy possum – evolved around 20 million years BC. First discovered in southern Australia during 1867, it later became the faunal symbol of Victoria, the most densely populated state in the country. A shy, nocturnal and fast-moving creature, it was rarely seen – occupying the highest parts of trees including the mountain ash (the world's tallest flowering plant), where it leaped athletically from branch to branch. Previously common in this region, concerns grew that it would go extinct after the draining of swamps and wetlands for agriculture in the early 1900s. Following the Black Friday bushfires in 1939 – which burned 20,000 km² (4,942,000 acres, 2,000,000 ha) of land – it was thought to have vanished. However, the animal was rediscovered in 1961, surviving in the Central Highlands about 80 km (49 mi) northeast of Melbourne.